2013 Preakness Analysis- Going with Orb Again!

I love to do these little write-ups for the triple crown races.  Given that I have been handicapping and wagering on horse racing since I was a 5 year old.  Yes, I know that sounds outlandish but that is the truth.  That’s almost for 40 years, which is a very scary thought. 

All the credit needs to go to my grandfather who when I was young, would pick me up around 12:15 on Sundays, tell my parents that we were going to mass, and then we would be at OTB to play the daily double in time!  I loved horse racing then and caught the bug and still do. 

My granddad turns a whopping 95 years old this Monday.  We had gone together to Saratoga every summer for 38 straight years but missed this past meet due to his health issues.  Amazing!  So, in a way, this analysis is dedicated to him and all the lessons he taught me in life over the years!  What a man he has been for 95 years!

It’s pretty obvious that this is not a money making race in the sense of having intriguing betting options.  With that said, if I were at the track today on a normal day, this is a race I would likely not play due to the lack of intriguing options and payouts.  I would have passed on the race and looked for more intriguing plays.  But since this is a triple crown race and we play them, our analysis and wager follows below.

We had the winner of the Derby as you can see in our previous posting.  Odds listed are the odds at the time of the write-up.

#1 ORB  (4-5)–Our Derby pick came through for the cash.  This horse has improved every race he has run and has proven he can rate (see fla derby line) and close like he did in the Derby.   Still improving and don’t think we have seen his best race yet.  This past Monday’s workout was awesome and Shug is not a man to throw around superlatives like he has done for this horse.  This could finally be the “one” to get the general public interested again in horse racing and finally bring home a triple crown.  There are very few reasons to bet against  him, but a few weeks back there was a “rail bias” against rail horses at Pimlico and maybe one could use that in desperation.  However, Rosario will in all likelihood give him a good trip, get him off the rail when needed.  Let the excitement begin heading to the big Apple!  Even money would be a steal but there is no way he is going to go off even money.  Our choice and our play and we want to see a dominating performance to really justify talk of a great horse heading to Belmont. 

#2 Goldencents (7-1)—What in the world happened to him in the Derby?  Wow, what a clunker.  Obviously never made the lead in the Derby and that threw out any chance he had in the race based on his style and given Palace Malace’s brutal fractions.  O’neil praising Krigger for pulling him up in the Derby as the smart thing to do and also alluding to the sloppy track as an excuse.  His form heading into the Derby was as good as any of the horses.  Will have a much easier time making the lead today, but doubt he really wants to go this distance.  Given how bad his Derby race was and the excuses he had, its obvious he had to come back for another try.  Will make a much better showing here today but will not be enough.

#3 Titletownfive (23-1)—Obvious for GreenBay packer fans with the Paul Hornung connections.  Has one win as a maiden and looks really outclassed here.  Will give a brief front pace thrill with his speed but that is about it.

# 4 Departing (11-1)—4 for 5 lifetime and an improving gelding but can’t really make a case he beat anybody really good in those races.  Stall skipped the Derby with him and pointed him to the Preakness.  Would have to take a big step forward here today with the big step up in class which is not out of the realm of possibilities.

#5 Mylute  (7-1)—Fifth place finisher in the Derby.  Running line did say he was steadied early in the Derby.  May have run his best race in the Derby and looked better than it was given the blazing pace which was a good set-up for him to pass tiring horses.  Will have to take another big step forward today which I don’t think is likely. 2 for 10 lifetime player.

#6 Oxbow (14-1)—He chased that suicidal pace in the Derby and still held on for 6th losing by just over 9 lengths.  To his credit, any other horse near that pace collapsed completely.  There is something to be said for that.  Another player who is just 2 for 10 lifetime.  That race likely took a lot out of him and if his from before the Derby was better would be worth a look.  Highly unlikely to turn the tables on Orb today however.

#7 WillTakeCharge (12-1)—Was running fine in Derby when Verrazanno tired and he was checked by him at 3/16th’s pole.  It is important to note he was stride for stride with Orb at that point and he did little running after that.   So, I could see players using that as an excuse and tepidly backing him.   Also, likely needed that race and could improve 2nd off the layoff for Lukas.  Interesting player.

#8 GovernorCharlie (11-1)—Baffert entry looks like a one trick speed horse that last raced on March 24th.  Backers may get a brief thrill with his speed.  Would have to take a big step forward today.  Had a hoof bruise which has kept him on the sidelines.  Major step up in class.  Did have a bullet work on May 13th at 6f.

#9 Itsmyluckyday (9-1)—Horrible performance in the Derby finishing 15th and guess he just didn’t like the slop.  Gets a big jock switch today and his form before Derby was solid.  Not out of the realm of the possibilities.

Just going with the following straight play:

$400 to Win on #1 Orb

Good Luck!

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Obviously, the listing of “sloppy” for the track and the radar which shows continuous rain makes this Derby as much as a crap shoot as ever.  With that said, this will not stop us from handicapping and trying to solve the puzzle.

Here is a quick look at each horse and then our picks.  (Odds shown are current at the time of write-up)

#2 Oxbow (22-1)- Grade 2 Rebel two back was a nice race where he just missed behind Will Take Charge.  Last race no idea what happened so just maybe a bad post and bad trip.  Nice story with Gary Stevens back from retirement.  Does have a high rating in the DRF on a Wet track theoretically but he has never run on an off track.  Will pass.

#3 Revolutionary (5-1)- The current luke-warm favorite.  What a move in the La. Derby on March 30th.  2nd off the layoff and should be ready to run his best race.  Connections of Pletcher and Borel stellar and sire and Dam impeccable.  Must respect and be used and with the slop he needs to show some tactical speed he has shown before and not fall as far behind as he did in last race.  Has won on an off track before too!

# 4 Golden Soul (29-1)- Clearly Overmatched today but will be flying at the end as his style.

#5 Normandy Invasion (7-1)-off pace runner has  a lot to like and offers a lot of value at 7-1 even though morning line was 12-1. Had trouble in both of last his last races and in both ran really well despite the trouble.  Verrazano beat him by ¾ of a length in the Wood despite him being bumped at the break and and a slow pace.  3rd of form cycle off the layoff and expect him to run a  big one today.  Castellano had his choice between him and Revolutionary and chose Normandy Invasion.  Also has some breeding to like the wet track.  Take a long look here, a major player.

#6 Mylute  (13-1)- Rally wide in last but made a heck of a move to get 2nd and lose by a neck.  Best race by far was last and this is 3rd off form cycle.  Tommy Amos hitting at 32% clip on all his runners in 2013 so for that fact alone he is worth a look for some exotics.

#7 Giant Finish (37-1)- New York bred is clearly outclassed. 

#8 Goldencents (7-1)- Current co-second choice after being installed as the morning line favorite.  For speed players this is the choice.  What a number (105) in the Santa Anita derby.  His derby prep Beyer number blows the field away and I guess the question is can he handle the distance?  With the slop and 18 horses in the field, his speed should be a major advantage.  One of my top choices and must be used.

# 9 Overanalyze (14-1)-  Winner of Arkanas Derby last out by 4 lengths.  Did run a 99 beyer in the Remsen but has been below 90 the last 2.  Have to respect connections but will take a pass.

#10 Palace Magic (23-1)- Respect connections.  Needs to show much more speed than he has showN.  Will pass on him being able to improve enough today.

#11 Lines of Battle (32-1)- Winner of the UAE Derby a big price on the board.  See no reason why not to use him in some exotics at 32-1.

#12 Itsmyluckyday (9-1)- Great tactical speed and stalk style fits nicely to winning profile. His race off the layoff can be excused in the form cycle.  Before the layoff, his races in Holy Bull and GP Derby were very impressive.  If he runs back to those 2 races watch-out.  Has been bet down to 9-1 from a morning line of 15-1.  Question if he can get the distance , but a major player and must be used.

#13 Falling Sky (37-1)- Cheap speed will be out there early but that is about all.  Will give backers a thrill for a few furlongs but clearly overmatched.  Pass.

#14 Verazzano  (9-1)- now at 9-1 from a morning line at 4-1.  Undefeated colt so far  and has had some nice trips in those wins.  Did not race as a 2 year old.  Connections stellar and surprised to see his odds at 9-1.  An obvious contender and must be respected.

#15 Charming Kitten (29-1)-  Never won on dirt.  Does not fit profile.  Pass

#16 Orb (8-1)- Can Shug get his first derby?  A lot to like here.  Bred to run forever, dad won the derby in 1990 and the Breeders Cup Classic.  Has won 3 times at two turns.  At 8-1, this is a steal.  Guess concern is that he can’t handle wet track.  Why not?  My choice at these odds.

#17 Will Take Charge (29-1)- Looking outlassed and lone race in the slop was a disaster losing by 18 lenghts.  Pass.

#18 Frac Daddy (22-1)- Don’t see any reason to back.  Looking elsewhere.

#19 Java’s War (31-1)- Great closing finish in the Blue Grass.  Will be flying late but not backing at all.

#20 Vykack (31-1)- Looking elsewhere although he is 4-5 lifetime.

Here is what I am playing:

$20 exacta Box- #3,#8,#12,#16 for $240

$100 W $100 Place #16 ORB for $200


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Aud/Jpy Breakout Targets 88.50?

Aud/Jpy (84.40)>>>> Nice Pattern breakout on the daily chart in Aud/Jpy.  Daily trend models have turned back up supporting the pattern break.  Strong breakout support is 83.25-50.  Below would negate the breakout.
Good Luck out There!

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Inverted Head and Shoulders Breakout In $/Yen>>>> Targets at least 84.25

$/JPY (84.25)>>>> we have been very quiet for some time now on the trading front awaiting a well-defined idea with known risk levels.  $/JPY appears to be providing such an opportunity today.  It appears that $/JPY has broken higher out of a classical Edwards/Magee Inverted Head and Shoulders Bottom.  A close above 80.70 today will confirm.  If correct, a target of 84.25 should be seen at a minimium.  Daily trend indicators are also flashing a buy signal further supporting the move toward 84.25.  At this juncture, 80.50-70 should provide very strong support.  Only price action below would negate this outlook.
Good Luck out There!

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1.60 Target Achieved in Gbp/Usd….Next target is 1.62-1.6250

Gbp/Usd>>>>>Gbp has achieved the initial 1.60 target we set back on August 21st near 1.5770.  The upside chart technical pattern along with moving average system breakout system noted below has met the initial objective. We have tightened out s/l on longs to 1.5905.  We have out next target at 1.62-1.6250.
Good Luck out There!

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Euro/Jpy Daily Breakout >>>headed toward 101.60

Euro/Jpy (99.55)>>>> Euro/Jpy appears to be breaking out and heading toward at least 101.65.  Breaking out of a short-term consolidation pattern from the last 12 days.

Moving average trend model has turned long and the Daily ADX is turning up from extremely low levels and from levels indicative of the start of a significant move.

Short-term, should not see price below 99.00 or a reassessment of the bullish case would be in order.

Good Luck out There!

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GBP/USD Breaking Out Toward 1.6000 and then 1.6200

Gbp-Usd (1.5772)>>>> We have been pretty quiet the last month as market has been in summer doldrums.  However, a good set-up is occurring in GBP.  Appears poised to break out of the recent 2 month congestion/consolidation pattern.  A daily close today above 1.5785 opens the door to target of 1.6000 and then 1.6200 under this pattern.

Trend system has turned long and daily ADX is low and turning up hard, usually indicative of a sustained move.

Short-term prices should not be seen below 1.5700-10.  Below would force a reassessment.  Looking for quick and immediate upside accleration.

Good Luck out there!

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